NFL Season Starts With Plenty of Appetizing Gambling

Finally, we have returned from the gambling hibernation known as June and July. If it weren’t for Tradesports, I probably would have had full out withdrawal symptoms. My co-workers have laughed at my stories of betting on golf, baseball, and (gasp) women’s tennis.

As the NFL begins tonight, it seems finally appropriate to discuss predictions for the upcoming season. Many have billed New England as the overwhelming favorite to win this year. With their stellar off-season, it seems almost a certainty that Billy boy will have no problem guiding his squad to Glendale comes February. If you were considering taking another team to be the AFC representative, I would highly discourage it. Betting against Belichick could be the worst form of gambling available.

The place to find value this year would be in regular season win totals. For example on betus.com, the Titans line is at 7. This is a high line for a team that finished 8-8 with a flurry of dramatic wins. Vince Young will have to conduct his high wire act without last years leading rusher and receiver. Pac Man will obviously be gone on the defensive side as well. I believe this year will be a step back for the Titans.

Another team most likely to take a step back is the Chiefs. After an anemic performance against the Colts in the playoffs, they decided to go in a new direction at quarterback. This leaves an older team to suffer with growing pains at the QB position. Unless Croyle proves opposing defenses he can move the ball with his arm, they may be in for a long season. At a 7.5 win line; I can easily see the Chiefs slipping to 7-9 or 6-10.

A team that really seems to be under the radar is the St Louis Rams. “The Greatest Show on Turf” may not be in existence any more, but a Bulger-Jackson-Holt combination may be enough to get this team to the playoffs. The NFC west has been billed as a juggernaut, but I still doubt the Cardinals have drastically improved yet. As for the 49’ers, my rule is any team with Walt Harris should just be contracted. There are no excuses for the Rams to not light it up with a healthy Orlando Pace, under rated Drew Bennett, and new TE Randy McMichael. If the defense can improve even slightly, I see the Rams winning easily 8-9 games in the weak NFC.

As for tonight, this game between the Saints and Colts has been hyped as a track meet. With a total in near 53-54, this will be one of the highest point totals for the entire season. Last year, both over totals listed in the 50’s went under the posted total. Personally, I look for nothing different to get this year started. For both teams to be successful their respective run defenses will need to be tested. Last year most teams adapted a bunker mentality against the Colts, making it difficult for Peyton to connect on the deep routes. I look for much of the same this year.

My Predictions:

NFC West- Seahawks East- Eagles North-Bears South-Saints

AFC West- Chargers East- Patriots North-Bengals South-Colts

AFC Champ- Patriots

NFC Champ- Seahawks

Celtics making all the right (follow-up) moves

Not surprisingly, Celtics tickets are on fire. Their intro screen proudly declares "We've got our ticket, have you got yours?" Their website is already filled with pictures of Kevin Garnett, Allen and the incumbent Pierce. The marketing is in place, the phones won't stop ringing and the web is still buzzing about the Celtics. Some Timberwolves fans are pissed, but most understand the situation. What's been interesting is how happy non-Timberwolves fans are for KG. By every account I've read, KG really is the person portrayed on TV - the guy who goes hard every night no matter what the circumstances. This wouldn't be much of a revelation ,if the NBA wasn't filled with Vince Carters.

At first, I was worried when rumors started appearing that the Celtics would surround their super trio with minimum salary players. Screw the salary cap; the team's window is 3 or 4 years, the luxury tax is a non-factor at this point. The Celitcs are all in; it's not time to be shit kicking over a few million. The Celtics have permission to get in to Isiah territory.

The Celtics quelled my initial fears, signing incredibly underrated guard Eddie House to a one year contract. He can play either guard spot, hit the 3, and doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective. He's the antithesis of Rajon Rondo, who is a much better ball handler and defender.

Also, the Celtics Blog is reporting there's a rumor going around that Ryan Gomes might be released and sign back with the Celtics. I've never seen so many fans excited about a potential role player addition, but the Celtics need all the bench players they can get. If this happens...why was Gomez included in the trade to begin with? His 700kish salary easily could have been omitted.

In other news...

Unfortunately, futures for the NBA Finals winner haven't been released from Trade Sports yet (I was anxious to see the Celtics' odds), but I'll post them as soon as they are. It will be interesting to see the futures for the Eastern Conference Finals winner too - other than Chicago and maybe Detroit - is there any other team that isn't an injury or two away from instantly becoming a lottery contender?

Update: All $15 and $18 Celtics season tickets are sold out.

Update 2: All $15, $18 and $25 tickets are sold out. Guess who got some? Also, the NBA quickly redid its schedule after the KG trade to allow for 19 TV appearances by the Celtics.

Vick Isn't Just Hurting Doggies

Dogs aren't the only thing Michael "Ookie" Vick has been hurting. Speculators who invested in Falcons Super Bowl futures on Trade Sports have been getting absolutely hammered over the course of the past few month. Prices have fallen from a high of 2.5 in March 2007 (and 2.4 in May) to a current price of 0.8 as of July 25, 2007.




Additionally, prices for Falcons tickets on Stubhub have been leveling off as well. Michael Vick might not win football games, complete passes or wear protection, but he does draw a large crowd and have fun nick names. Unfortunately for Michael Vick, even at this stage in his career he remains exactly what he was when he entered the league - a below average quarterback and an above average running back who also happens to only have one legitimately good season under his belt (2004). Ironically, had the Falcons, kept Matt Schaub, the Falcons might have been a great value play for this upcoming season.

I was actually extremely close to purchasing Falcons season tickets (to scalp of course) due to the Falcons great draft, solid 2006 attendance and over-hyped, attendance-drawing quarterback, Michael Vick. Fortunately, I was wait-listed.