Discrediting pundits' NFL predictions

As a professional ticket broker, it is very hard to take an objective view of the NFL season. In an ideal world, the Cowboys, Vikings, Saints and Cardinals would be NFC division champions and host at least one home game. In the AFC, the Dolphins, Bengals, Jaguars and Chargers would be ideal champions for brokers.

Since the league expanded to the current format, the league has averaged less than 4 repeat division champions. Ironically, every pundit (including on this blog) makes "bold" predicitions that include most of the previous years divison winners repeating. ESPN "experts" picked 83% of last years division winners, choosing to remain ignorant to the past.

History has told us that this simply won't happen. Therefore, the most effective way at predicting the outcome of the NFL in the preseason is identifying the teams that will come out of nowhere and topple the quality playoff teams from the year before. Last year it was the Ravens, Chargers, Saints and Eagles. I personally only saw the Chargers as a lock to win their division last year out of that group.

Here are my 4 teams that will make the leap and host a playoff game this year:

Dallas Cowboys. This one is the smallest leap of faith. With a full year of Tony Romo and a relatively quiet offseason for TO, I see them winning an otherwise weak division. We will see if Romo's quick rise from unknown rookie to cover boy on teeny-bopper magazines everywhere has any effect on his play. (Likewise for thrice champion Brady)

San Francisco 49ers. They have done a great job building this team over the last few years. This is the make or break year for Alex Smith and with a quality RB in Gore this team is poised to overtake Seattle. Smith sure has blossomed since throwing 11 INTs and only 1 TD two years ago, and I expect him to make another leap.

Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are finally fully healthy and are getting close to being able to field a full team of convicts. After beating the prision guards in the preseason, they look to beat up on the Ravens and Steelers, who will both take a major step back this year. I wonder if Chris Rock is available as an assistant for Marvin Lewis...

Green Bay Packers. As a Lions fan, this is the hardest one to pick. But the Packers have the young talent around Favre to win the division at 8-8 considering their competition is: the Bears, who are a miserable offensive team that traded their leading rusher, the Vikings who have Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback, and the Lions...who are, the Lions. Additionally, For this to happen, Favre has to go through some kind of adversity. Maybe another hurricane, ATV accident or death in the family can improve their chances.

The rest of the divisions will be filled with division winners Indianapolis, New England, San Diego and New Orleans.

Regardless, is there a greater time of year to be a sports hustler? The NFL is upon us, buying season for the NBA is ramping up and the MLB playoffs are quickly approaching.

Stein Misses the Point

Earlier today, Marc Stein of ESPN wrote this in his Donaghy Questions & Answers article:

"If salaries were raised, would that reduce the possibility of referees being lured into the sort of activities Donaghy is accused of?

Referees make only a fraction of what NBA players earn, true, in a league in which the average player salary tops $5 million.

Yet it's a significant stretch to suggest they're all desperate for dollars -- even if you want to overstate things and make it sound as though fighting off such temptations is a common problem.

Entry-level referees are paid in the $85,000 area, according to league sources, but the overwhelming majority are six-figure earners. At the high end of the scale, salaries surpass $300,000.

It's believed that a referee with Donaghy's experience makes more than $200,000 annually, with extra cash coming in the playoffs.

The median wage and salary income in this country in 2005, according to U.S. Census data, was $34,926 for men and $23,546 for women."

I usually like Stein, but he completely misses the mark here. With regards to NBA basketball and gambling it doesn't matter how much the average person in the U.S. earns - these players, coaches and even referees are in a different world. What matters is that referees can easily earn more than 1x-5x their salary in a week long stretch of games without drawing any bookie-based red flags ( i.e. in Vegas people wouldn't look twice at mid five to low six figure bets).

In contrast, an NBA player, with an average single year salary of over $5.0 million would rarely risk millions upon millions of dollars in current and future salary along with endorsement opportunities and royalties payments for relative chump change point shaving. Additionally, if they wanted to reap rewards greater than their salary their bets would almost certainly draw scrutiny.

Money provides with people with incentive even if they aren't "desperate for dollars". Additionally, this situation exemplifies why having a team in Vegas shouldn't be a concern - at least as far as gambling goes. The internet is ubiquitous; people can place a bet anywhere as it doesn't matter where the team is playing. Generally speaking, players make too much money to ever risk it all wagering on games or point shaving. And the players who don't usually aren't significant enough factors alter the game outcome.