Week 2 analysis

Now that an exciting week one is in the books, we can begin to start analyzing the prospects for this upcoming slate of games. There is no doubt that week one left its mark in terms of injuries. With key players like Ray Lewis, Cadillac Williams, Chester Taylor, and Eli Manning going down; Chances for a few teams have really gone south fast.

The Baltimore Ravens held their own against the Bengals the other night, but they certainly showed their age as a few of their older star players were sidelined for portions of the game. This worries me, as the Ravens are a solid team built around key players who could be fragile down the stretch. The Giants are another team that could be feeling the blues if Eli Manning’s injury is more severe then the team is letting on to. With the “hefty lefty” as his backup, it could be a three horse race already in the NFC East.

One of the surprising things about last week was the record of favorites against the spread. They hit at a 56.25% clip last week (9-5-2 ATS) to go against the 42% (31-42-7) they have been in the last five years. This could be foreshadowing, as last year was a great year for underdogs. It would not surprise me in the slightest if this season became a reversal to the mean. With this is mind, we are only one week through, it would take another week or two of evidence before I start playing predominantly favorites.

The opening lines have left a few interesting betting scenarios. New Orleans marches into Tampa this weekend only a 3.5 point favorite. Granted the Saints got embarrassed on opening night, but the Bucs will most likely be without Cadillac Williams. In my mind this game feels like it may be to good to be true, so I probably will be steering clear of this match-up. Another intriguing game will be between the Dolphins (+3.5) and Cowboys. After a disappointing overtime loss, the Dolphins will need an even stronger effort to stay competitive with TO and company. I believe if the Dolphins struggle stopping the run (they gave up 191 yards rushing last week), they will easily fall to 0-2.

Predictions:

Chargers +3.5 - I believe that San Diego will come up big in this rematch of last year's AFC Divisional Playoff. I think the Patriots may come back to earth against a legitimate defense.

NYG-GB Under 37.5- Even though this is a very low number, Green Bay scored 10 of their 16 points on pathetic Eagle turnovers. If Eli is out New York will really struggle against a strong Green Bay defense.

Cincy -6.5 Given the horrid outing the Browns showed in week one, I see no evidence that Cleveland will be able to keep this game even competitive. If the Steeler's passing game was too strong, Cincinnati will have no problem bombing it all over the mistake by the lake.

Discrediting pundits' NFL predictions

As a professional ticket broker, it is very hard to take an objective view of the NFL season. In an ideal world, the Cowboys, Vikings, Saints and Cardinals would be NFC division champions and host at least one home game. In the AFC, the Dolphins, Bengals, Jaguars and Chargers would be ideal champions for brokers.

Since the league expanded to the current format, the league has averaged less than 4 repeat division champions. Ironically, every pundit (including on this blog) makes "bold" predicitions that include most of the previous years divison winners repeating. ESPN "experts" picked 83% of last years division winners, choosing to remain ignorant to the past.

History has told us that this simply won't happen. Therefore, the most effective way at predicting the outcome of the NFL in the preseason is identifying the teams that will come out of nowhere and topple the quality playoff teams from the year before. Last year it was the Ravens, Chargers, Saints and Eagles. I personally only saw the Chargers as a lock to win their division last year out of that group.

Here are my 4 teams that will make the leap and host a playoff game this year:

Dallas Cowboys. This one is the smallest leap of faith. With a full year of Tony Romo and a relatively quiet offseason for TO, I see them winning an otherwise weak division. We will see if Romo's quick rise from unknown rookie to cover boy on teeny-bopper magazines everywhere has any effect on his play. (Likewise for thrice champion Brady)

San Francisco 49ers. They have done a great job building this team over the last few years. This is the make or break year for Alex Smith and with a quality RB in Gore this team is poised to overtake Seattle. Smith sure has blossomed since throwing 11 INTs and only 1 TD two years ago, and I expect him to make another leap.

Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are finally fully healthy and are getting close to being able to field a full team of convicts. After beating the prision guards in the preseason, they look to beat up on the Ravens and Steelers, who will both take a major step back this year. I wonder if Chris Rock is available as an assistant for Marvin Lewis...

Green Bay Packers. As a Lions fan, this is the hardest one to pick. But the Packers have the young talent around Favre to win the division at 8-8 considering their competition is: the Bears, who are a miserable offensive team that traded their leading rusher, the Vikings who have Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback, and the Lions...who are, the Lions. Additionally, For this to happen, Favre has to go through some kind of adversity. Maybe another hurricane, ATV accident or death in the family can improve their chances.

The rest of the divisions will be filled with division winners Indianapolis, New England, San Diego and New Orleans.

Regardless, is there a greater time of year to be a sports hustler? The NFL is upon us, buying season for the NBA is ramping up and the MLB playoffs are quickly approaching.

NFL Season Starts With Plenty of Appetizing Gambling

Finally, we have returned from the gambling hibernation known as June and July. If it weren’t for Tradesports, I probably would have had full out withdrawal symptoms. My co-workers have laughed at my stories of betting on golf, baseball, and (gasp) women’s tennis.

As the NFL begins tonight, it seems finally appropriate to discuss predictions for the upcoming season. Many have billed New England as the overwhelming favorite to win this year. With their stellar off-season, it seems almost a certainty that Billy boy will have no problem guiding his squad to Glendale comes February. If you were considering taking another team to be the AFC representative, I would highly discourage it. Betting against Belichick could be the worst form of gambling available.

The place to find value this year would be in regular season win totals. For example on betus.com, the Titans line is at 7. This is a high line for a team that finished 8-8 with a flurry of dramatic wins. Vince Young will have to conduct his high wire act without last years leading rusher and receiver. Pac Man will obviously be gone on the defensive side as well. I believe this year will be a step back for the Titans.

Another team most likely to take a step back is the Chiefs. After an anemic performance against the Colts in the playoffs, they decided to go in a new direction at quarterback. This leaves an older team to suffer with growing pains at the QB position. Unless Croyle proves opposing defenses he can move the ball with his arm, they may be in for a long season. At a 7.5 win line; I can easily see the Chiefs slipping to 7-9 or 6-10.

A team that really seems to be under the radar is the St Louis Rams. “The Greatest Show on Turf” may not be in existence any more, but a Bulger-Jackson-Holt combination may be enough to get this team to the playoffs. The NFC west has been billed as a juggernaut, but I still doubt the Cardinals have drastically improved yet. As for the 49’ers, my rule is any team with Walt Harris should just be contracted. There are no excuses for the Rams to not light it up with a healthy Orlando Pace, under rated Drew Bennett, and new TE Randy McMichael. If the defense can improve even slightly, I see the Rams winning easily 8-9 games in the weak NFC.

As for tonight, this game between the Saints and Colts has been hyped as a track meet. With a total in near 53-54, this will be one of the highest point totals for the entire season. Last year, both over totals listed in the 50’s went under the posted total. Personally, I look for nothing different to get this year started. For both teams to be successful their respective run defenses will need to be tested. Last year most teams adapted a bunker mentality against the Colts, making it difficult for Peyton to connect on the deep routes. I look for much of the same this year.

My Predictions:

NFC West- Seahawks East- Eagles North-Bears South-Saints

AFC West- Chargers East- Patriots North-Bengals South-Colts

AFC Champ- Patriots

NFC Champ- Seahawks