Week 2 analysis

Now that an exciting week one is in the books, we can begin to start analyzing the prospects for this upcoming slate of games. There is no doubt that week one left its mark in terms of injuries. With key players like Ray Lewis, Cadillac Williams, Chester Taylor, and Eli Manning going down; Chances for a few teams have really gone south fast.

The Baltimore Ravens held their own against the Bengals the other night, but they certainly showed their age as a few of their older star players were sidelined for portions of the game. This worries me, as the Ravens are a solid team built around key players who could be fragile down the stretch. The Giants are another team that could be feeling the blues if Eli Manning’s injury is more severe then the team is letting on to. With the “hefty lefty” as his backup, it could be a three horse race already in the NFC East.

One of the surprising things about last week was the record of favorites against the spread. They hit at a 56.25% clip last week (9-5-2 ATS) to go against the 42% (31-42-7) they have been in the last five years. This could be foreshadowing, as last year was a great year for underdogs. It would not surprise me in the slightest if this season became a reversal to the mean. With this is mind, we are only one week through, it would take another week or two of evidence before I start playing predominantly favorites.

The opening lines have left a few interesting betting scenarios. New Orleans marches into Tampa this weekend only a 3.5 point favorite. Granted the Saints got embarrassed on opening night, but the Bucs will most likely be without Cadillac Williams. In my mind this game feels like it may be to good to be true, so I probably will be steering clear of this match-up. Another intriguing game will be between the Dolphins (+3.5) and Cowboys. After a disappointing overtime loss, the Dolphins will need an even stronger effort to stay competitive with TO and company. I believe if the Dolphins struggle stopping the run (they gave up 191 yards rushing last week), they will easily fall to 0-2.

Predictions:

Chargers +3.5 - I believe that San Diego will come up big in this rematch of last year's AFC Divisional Playoff. I think the Patriots may come back to earth against a legitimate defense.

NYG-GB Under 37.5- Even though this is a very low number, Green Bay scored 10 of their 16 points on pathetic Eagle turnovers. If Eli is out New York will really struggle against a strong Green Bay defense.

Cincy -6.5 Given the horrid outing the Browns showed in week one, I see no evidence that Cleveland will be able to keep this game even competitive. If the Steeler's passing game was too strong, Cincinnati will have no problem bombing it all over the mistake by the lake.