Lupica Does Not Know Evil

At one point in his career, Mike Lupica was regarded as one of the country's best sports writers. In the present he's well-known for his appearances on the The Sports Reporters. Despite having having a panel of 4 people, Lupica speaks for 90% of the show and interrupts everyone with his PC jargon and valiant non sequiturs. I used to love that show, but now it is terrible compared to PTI and even Around the Horn. If Lupica was on Around the Horn, he would be muted more than Helen Keller. Anyways, earlier in the week Lupica wrote a piece declaring gambling as the "root of all evil". Below is a breakdown of the numerous misrepresentations littered throughout his article along with our commentary.

"For the longest time, the biggest professional sports have wrung their hands in public about illegal gambling, and how it can corrupt everything and everybody, and continued to treat legal gambling with a wink and a nod. "

If the major professional sports treated legal gambling with more respect, as FIFA is attempting to do and the NFL already does, they would be more prepared for the ill-effects of illegal gambling and corruption of referees, players, coaches, etc. The NBA is not doing enough winking and nodding at Las Vegas.

"Or perhaps you think the National Football League puts out those injury reports every week because they think we're worried if the sick players are getting better."

As the Sports Lawyer notes, if the NBA had put out similar injury reports as the NFL does, inside information would be drastically reduced and Donaghy would not have been near as helpful as an informant.

"Even the people running the NFL know that it's not just the most popular sport on television because of those real hard hits. Part of the huge appeal of pro football is because it generates the most betting, insane amounts of money changing hands all the way to Super Sunday. Basketball? There's games every night. Like it or not, that means the red-light district is always right across the street.

Why is this a problem? People are going to gamble no matter what counter-productive laws the empty suits in Washington DC pass. Don't believe me? Prohibition and the War on Drugs worked out real well didn't they? It's much better to regulate and publicly disclose as much information as possible. If a blanket law was passed outlawing all gambling people would resort to shady offshore shops and even shadier local bookies. Instead, myriad legitimate, reputable gambling options exist.

"Somebody walked across that street and put the arm on Donaghy, the one ref we know about so far with a gambling problem, gave him a moonlighting job as a way to get out from under his debts. So are you shocked about Donaghy, or more shocked that it took this long for some enterprising bad guys to figure out a way to finance bad behavior like this?"

I don't think any rational person is shocked. As mentioned previously, increasing referee salary and disclosing "insider information" would drastically reduce this risk. Additionally, I wouldn't say that $5,000 a pick is going to get him out of debt very quickly. Donaghy has either taken the short bus his whole life or had an alternative motive for providing picks than just money.

"Gambling is supposed to be bad, bad, bad, around pro basketball and everything else. But it is perfectly all right for the owners of the Sacramento Kings, the Maloof brothers, who own one of the biggest and gaudiest casinos in Las Vegas. This past year, the NBA decided to take All-Star weekend to Vegas, and there is always talk that the sports leagues are trying to figure out some way to put a franchise there.

Gambling is not "bad, bad, bad". It provides entertainment and creates jobs. Although one could argue it doesn't exactly create wealth, is that really any different than the entertainment industry? Putting a franchise in Vegas is a brilliant idea unless you think we should move another professional franchise to Hartford.

"There is a vulgar amount of money in sports and an army of young guys spending it, in all sorts of ways, hanging around with all sorts of people, in all sorts of places. On both sides of the street. If commissioners are going to police all that, if they want to be the traffic cops, they're going to have to put on more people."

Guess who is responsible for the "vulgar amount of money" in sports. The fans. The networks. The broadcasters. You. Me. Don't patronize the young guys earning all the money; they're doing what any rational person with exceptional athletic talent would do. Also, the only PLAYERS that have ever been enticed into throwing games are college players, who, shockingly are UNPAID. Vulgar amounts of money decrease the possibility of Donaghy-like events; it does not increase them.
Unfortunately the NBA and David Stern decided to take the ball-less approach - the one that looks great on paper and appeases fans and front office suits in the short-term, but doesn't do anything to solve the long-term problem of transparency. The other day, the NBA hired Lawrence B. Pedowitz to analyze the NBA's anti-gambling polices and monitoring processes for the NBA's officials. So far, I have received 8 press releases from different teams as the NBA has tried to force this down the throat of their teams and subsequently their fans. Stayed tune for a crack down on NCAA Tourney pool participants and casual, insignificant gamblers.

Written by Lewis and Kevin.

The Easy Way Out

We unfortunately live in a world where people are always looking for the easy way out. More and more stories come out on a daily basis about wannabe scam artists. Whether it be on Wall Street with insider trading (think Dow Jones), on NBC's To Catch a Criminal, or in the world of sports.

Not only have sports fans had to endure stories about steroids, corked bats, dog fighting, and the Cincinnati Bengals. We have had to deal with more and more cases of match fixing. Tennis, college football, and pro basketball have been surrounded by betting scandals. What makes it even more frustrating is the fact that no sports governing body has acknowledged that sports gambling is a profitable business venture. We are coming to a point in the current sports landscape that requires more attention to gambling, and the counterparts involved.

With this in mind, it is refreshing to see that FIFA will be taking note of betting patterns during its upcoming world cup qualifying. Soccer has not been exempt from betting scandal in the past few years. Italy was rocked with news last year of match fixing in its own Serie A. According to the Associated Press, the soccer commission will be setting up a third party consultant, Early Warning System, to investigate suspicious betting patterns.

Although the timing suggests they have learned from the NBA's misfortunes, it is a sign that at least someone has caught on. It is nice to have Vegas as a reliable partner, but governing parties may want to actively protect the sanctity of its sport on their own.

Donaghy is Dumber than We Thought

When news of the Donaghy betting scandal first broke, I wasn't particularly surprised. It was relatively easy to see how the temptation of riches could push someone in the wrong direction. It's happened countless time before. Since Donaghy had a job paying over five times the median American household income, I figured he was being paid hundreds of thousands of dollars per year for his services. I was wrong. Yesterday the Smoking Gun reported Donaghy was only paid $5,000 per winning pick (Donaghy wasn't penalized or compensated for losing picks) by professional gambler James Battista, who according to ESPN's Lester Munson was known as a big betting mover. Unless Donaghy was submitting 50-100 winning picks per season, this appears to be a ridiculously small sum considering the amount of money wagered on his picks, and Donaghy's salary and job stability with the NBA.

As we mentioned in a previous post, most of the NBA's gambling problem would partially defuse if the NBA paid their referees more money. Would $5,000 per winning pick really be worth losing a stable job paying our recommended high six figure salary? This being in addition to all the perks the referees receive from the league. Sure, you'd still have action-loving addicts like Charles Barkley to worry about, but the move would significantly reduce the risk of people chancing their career and the league's image to make some extra money on the side.

Going forward, it will be interesting to see the types of picks Donaghy submitted (e.g. spread, over/under, straight up) , what percent of his picks turned out to be winners and how much money he netted in total from the scheme. In the present, that isn't likely since the case isn't going to trial. However, more information could be revealed if the investigation snowballs.

Update: SH favorite, the Sports Law Professor has a insightful take on the matter here. I especially like the idea of making available "insider information", specifically player injuries and the names of referees like the NFL does. Lupica has a terrible, logical fallacy-filled piece here, which we'll discuss later in the week.

The Case Against Cubs Mythology

On a recent MLB on Fox broadcast, Tim McCarver stated, rather matter-of-factly, that if the then-hot Chicago Cubs were to go on to take over the NL Central from Milwaukee, win the NL pennant, and claim their first World Series in 99 years, that it would go down as “one of the top three great sports moments of all time.” While many baseball viewers, both casual and diehard, dislike McCarver for his tendency to overanalyze the minute aspects of the game (often incorrectly), broadcasters who make sweeping generalizations have always bothered me the most. As compared to what? What are his criteria? He didn’t elaborate, as the subject changed soon after (maybe Joe Buck felt sympathy for the clearly waning McCarver); however, the most infuriating part of this statement was that many baseball fans, even those who see it as a profoundly stupid thing to say, can at least see where McCarver is coming from…after all, it’s the Cubs; they never win! What McCarver said was just another instance of a pro sports team getting a free pass from the media based principally on reputation. The Cubs are always the loveable losers, just like the Steelers always have a great defense…reality be damned. The mythology of the Cubs affords the club the luxury of avoiding justly deserved criticism, and instead perpetuates the kind of thinking that McCarver articulated. To an objective observer, buying into the idea that it is a historically memorable sports moment if a high-payroll, big market team playing in a consistently bad division could win a championship borders on preposterous; instead, if the Cubs get back to winning, we’ll be subjected to hearing how a Cubs postseason will be the “feel good baseball story of the year”.
While several low-payroll teams have had successful seasons in the past couple years, the teams with the highest payrolls tend to appear in the postseason consistently (a notable exception being the Mets, who have appeared in the postseason just once in this century, though unlike the Cubs, they face scathing criticism from local and national media.) In recent years, the Cubs have consistently outspent most teams; since 2004 they have been amongst the top ten highest spending teams in baseball each season; only once since 2001 have they not had the highest opening day payroll in the NL Central. While the Cubs may not be the Yankees of the Midwest, for fans who criticize George Steinbrenner for tainting the competitive nature of the game with money, they should realize the Cubs are not blameless.
The past (or, most recent) decade of Cubs ineptitude has not been a result of playing in a difficult division- the Reds haven’t finished with a winning record since 2000, while amazingly both the Pirates and Brewers have been below .500 since 1992. No other division in baseball is even close to being so disparate.
The point I am making is not that the Cubs are bad, or “unlucky” – this is already acknowledged, and implicitly part of what McCarver said. What McCarver and others aren’t recognizing is that the Cubs are supposed to win, and some season, they will. The fact that they haven’t won the World Series in nearly a century is immaterial; few current Cubs were on the last playoff team in 2003, and not one player has been a Cub for more than ten years. Just like how dice have no memory, what happened to a Cubs team in 2003, 1984, 1969, or 1908 is irrelevant.
What keeps it going then? The folklore of the Cubs is deeply ingrained into pop culture, even non baseball fans are familiar with the memes. The rabid Cubs fan, a relatable yuppie type who still knows how to be one of the guys, has become a stale Hollywood archetype. Every girl who graduates college and moves to Chicago becomes a dilettante Cubs fan so she can feign interest to impress the guys at the awesome Lincoln Park and Loop bars her and her friends frequent. While a Cubs hat or jersey should be enough already, some people wear attire that unambiguously tells you that you do not want to talk baseball or anything else with this person. Sure, I’m painting with a broad brush, and some Cubs fans genuinely have a passion for their club, and 99 years is a long time, but the White Sox went 88 years between championships. The 2005 World Series won by the team across the city was a long time coming, but outside of the South Side, their victory was entirely ordinary- they were the best team in the division on paper, they had a relatively high payroll, and they played well all season, and especially so when it mattered. Memorable yes, but certainly not cracking anyone’s Top Three.

The Celtics Revisited

Earlier we reported that since the KG trade, Celtics tickets have been a hot commodity. Over the weekend, Celtics team president Rich Gotham confirmed that the Celtics season ticket base has grown by an astounding 50% since the KG trade. With the Reggie Miller return rumors running rampant, this number could be pushed even higher if Miller ends up signing with the Celtics.

As John Hollinger noted on his blog, which covered some of the potential NBA comeback players (Penny Hardaway, Charles Oakley, and Allan Houston in addition to Miller), most of them should stay retired. Oakley is too old and was terrible in his final three seasons. Hardaway had a horrendous PER of 8.99 in 2004-2005; his last season of 30 or more games. Houston has an arthritic knee, which as Hollinger pointed out, doesn't exactly go away. However, Miller was the exception. Miller retired when he was still a starter and had an above average PER of 16.62. Additionally, the Pacer's were 9.6 points per game better with him on the court than off.

Although certainly not the same player from the late 90's or even of 2004-2005, Miller would still provide the Celtics with a much needed additional shooter, who would have myriad open looks with KG drawing the double team and Pierce usually drawing help defense on drives. Additionally, with Rajon Rondo able to guard the PG and SG positions, Miller could always guard the weaker of the two opponents given his age and shaky defense. Furthermore, Miller would provide the Celtics with a fourth player who has literally sold out an arena by himself (KG, Pierce and Allen being the others). Even if Miller only played 10-15 minutes a night, he'd still draw fans and help the team as he was easily one of the best shooters of his era (.395% career 3 point percentage), and shooting is one of the few skills that normally stays with a player as they age.

Dear Angels

Received this in the mail the other day from the Angels.

Dear Season Seat Holder:

We are happy to offer season seat holders the opportunity to purchase postseason tickets under the terms established by the Angels and Major League Baseball. Enclosed please find your 2007 Postseason Invoice and Postseason Terms & Conditions. Please make a note that your payment in full is due on or before August 31, 2007.

If you are currently carrying a credit balance on your account, then we have rolled over the appropriate amount necessary to cover any portion of your postseason payment. The credit is identified on your postseason invoice.

As a reminder, season seat holders may not sell and/or otherwise transfer event tickets without the express written consent of Angels Baseball, with the exception of sales and/or the transfer of tickets through the Angels Baseball ticketExchange system exclusively.

Dear Angels,

Maybe instead of trying to regulate free markets with your Hugo Chavez ideology, you should learn how to use a simple mail merge so you don't look like mongoloids sending out generic form letters to your fan base.

I'm sure you're well aware that secondary markets increase attendance, which results in higher revenue and profit in the form of merchandise sales, food sales, beer sales etc while providing liquidity. Angels Baseball ticketExchange is a pile of shit; I suggest you partner up with Stubhub like the rest of major league baseball.

Finally, maybe instead of worrying about what people do with goods they purchased and now own you should fix that little rat problem of yours - it's hurting my margins.

Very truly yours,

Your favorite scalper

Christmas in August

One of my few flaws is that I have a sick obsession with futures and prop betting. I could spend hours looking at the outrageous bets offered for the Super Bowl (length of the national anthem). So thanks to our degenerate friends across the pond (namely my employer) we have been supplied with Christmas during the summer. The amount of prop bets for Golf's four majors rival any other sporting event during the year. Personally, I am a little disappointed their is not an over/under line on how many golfers will pass out on the course this week.


If it weren't for prop bets, I would have absolutely no interest in this final major of a pretty forgettable golf year. If the fact that newbies have won every major weren't enough, I had Sergio Garcia to win the British Open only to seem him choke on yet another Sunday. Not to mention this tournament is being played in one of the most boring places on earth. I dare you to find a worse city in the egregious state of Oklahoma.

Let's get this out there to start with, Tiger will win this tournament. Having only a Who's Now title will not suffice for this incredibly competitive being. Not to mention, he has placed 2nd, 2nd, and 12th at the other majors this season. According to Bodog, Tiger is the favorite at 9/4.
Now that may seem like good value at +225, but you can find better if you hunt through the endless supply of prop bets.


At BetUS.com you can find my favorite value bet, handicap winners. In this prop you can pick a select few golfers to finish within a certain amount of strokes from the leader. Two of my favorite values are KJ Choi +8 strokes and Hunter Mahan + 9 stokes. At 9-1 and 11-1 respectively, I have no problem placing some cheddar on these two considering their recent success on the real PGA tour.

My favorite What The F@#$ bet is whether their will be a hole in one during the tournament. This is an obvious action junkie special right here. Who on earth would have any idea as to whether an ace will be hit this weekend? I say no.....



While sifting through the countless options to bet on, I thought I had found my lead pipe lock of the summer. When I stumbled upon Odds to miss the cut, I instantly searched for John Daly. The thought of John Daly trying to play golf in 100 degree heat made me see dollar signs. Unfortunately, like always, Vegas is one step ahead.

"No John Daly Odds Available"

Vegas Can Be Your Friend

The recent story of Betfair voiding over $7 million in bets on a recent tennis match proves again that odds makers have more then their own monetary interests in mind. This troubling tale, if proven to be true, shows how far degenerate gamblers are willing to go to guarantee a profit.

For those unaware of the story, fourth ranked Nikolay Davydenko is under a cloud of suspicion for retiring in an early round match of the Prokom Open. What makes the situation so odd is that betting against Davydenko increased rapidly after he swept through the first set with no signs of problems. Total betting on the match was over 10 times the standard amount on an average tennis match.

This recent case again proves that Vegas and other odds makers are also out to clean the sporting scene. Don't get me wrong, Vegas has its own monetary interests mainly at heart. But their constant analysis of the betting scene has helped crack multiple cases of betting manipulation in the past few years.

Most recently, Vegas book makers helped bust an operation that involved University of Toledo running back Scooter McDougle. As an avid sports fan, it makes me feel better to see these ponce schemes busted on a more frequent basis.

First of all, anyone that thinks they can get away with betting hundreds of thousands of dollars on tennis matches or MAC football games probably should be wiped off the face of the earth. Who in their right mind would be putting up big money on matches between Toledo and Northern Illinois, or even worse a second round match between two tennis players who aren't on Age of Love.


So next time you lose 50 bucks on a back door cover by the Miami Hurricanes, feel solace that Vegas is doing its best to protect you from an inside job. Unless you happen to be betting on an NBA game, then you are just screwed!!

Warriors and Barnes Agree to Deal

The Golden State Warriors and fan-favorite, swingman Matt Barnes have reached an agreement. The terms of the deal are unknown as any official announcement has yet to be be released. For Barnes, this marks the end to an extremely frustrating offseason. After becoming somewhat of a playoff hero for the Warriors in the 2006-2007 playoffs and believing he could easily receive a team's mid-level exception, Barnes was widely ignored during free agency. Teams viewed him as a product of Don Nelson's small ball, uptempo system and balked at his contract demands. Consequentially, Barnes went fired two agents in one summer before finally settling on Aaron Goodwin.

Warriors tickets remain hot as all Warriors 100 level season tickets are sold out. Additionally, despite mediocre performance over the past decade (the Warriors only made the 2006-2007 playoffs due to late-season surge), the Warriors still managed to be at 94% capacity in 2006-2007 and 95% capacity in 2005-2006 . Although the resigning of Barnes and additions of Austin Croshere, Macro Belinelli and Brandan Wright certainly improves the Warriors chances for the 2008 playoffs, it might not be enough to offset the loss of Jason Richardson and potentially Mickael Pietrus in the ultra-competitive Western Conference.

Update: The deal ended up only being one year for $3.5 million instead of the previously reported multi-year deal.

Celtics making all the right (follow-up) moves

Not surprisingly, Celtics tickets are on fire. Their intro screen proudly declares "We've got our ticket, have you got yours?" Their website is already filled with pictures of Kevin Garnett, Allen and the incumbent Pierce. The marketing is in place, the phones won't stop ringing and the web is still buzzing about the Celtics. Some Timberwolves fans are pissed, but most understand the situation. What's been interesting is how happy non-Timberwolves fans are for KG. By every account I've read, KG really is the person portrayed on TV - the guy who goes hard every night no matter what the circumstances. This wouldn't be much of a revelation ,if the NBA wasn't filled with Vince Carters.

At first, I was worried when rumors started appearing that the Celtics would surround their super trio with minimum salary players. Screw the salary cap; the team's window is 3 or 4 years, the luxury tax is a non-factor at this point. The Celitcs are all in; it's not time to be shit kicking over a few million. The Celtics have permission to get in to Isiah territory.

The Celtics quelled my initial fears, signing incredibly underrated guard Eddie House to a one year contract. He can play either guard spot, hit the 3, and doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective. He's the antithesis of Rajon Rondo, who is a much better ball handler and defender.

Also, the Celtics Blog is reporting there's a rumor going around that Ryan Gomes might be released and sign back with the Celtics. I've never seen so many fans excited about a potential role player addition, but the Celtics need all the bench players they can get. If this happens...why was Gomez included in the trade to begin with? His 700kish salary easily could have been omitted.

In other news...

Unfortunately, futures for the NBA Finals winner haven't been released from Trade Sports yet (I was anxious to see the Celtics' odds), but I'll post them as soon as they are. It will be interesting to see the futures for the Eastern Conference Finals winner too - other than Chicago and maybe Detroit - is there any other team that isn't an injury or two away from instantly becoming a lottery contender?

Update: All $15 and $18 Celtics season tickets are sold out.

Update 2: All $15, $18 and $25 tickets are sold out. Guess who got some? Also, the NBA quickly redid its schedule after the KG trade to allow for 19 TV appearances by the Celtics.