Week 2 analysis

Now that an exciting week one is in the books, we can begin to start analyzing the prospects for this upcoming slate of games. There is no doubt that week one left its mark in terms of injuries. With key players like Ray Lewis, Cadillac Williams, Chester Taylor, and Eli Manning going down; Chances for a few teams have really gone south fast.

The Baltimore Ravens held their own against the Bengals the other night, but they certainly showed their age as a few of their older star players were sidelined for portions of the game. This worries me, as the Ravens are a solid team built around key players who could be fragile down the stretch. The Giants are another team that could be feeling the blues if Eli Manning’s injury is more severe then the team is letting on to. With the “hefty lefty” as his backup, it could be a three horse race already in the NFC East.

One of the surprising things about last week was the record of favorites against the spread. They hit at a 56.25% clip last week (9-5-2 ATS) to go against the 42% (31-42-7) they have been in the last five years. This could be foreshadowing, as last year was a great year for underdogs. It would not surprise me in the slightest if this season became a reversal to the mean. With this is mind, we are only one week through, it would take another week or two of evidence before I start playing predominantly favorites.

The opening lines have left a few interesting betting scenarios. New Orleans marches into Tampa this weekend only a 3.5 point favorite. Granted the Saints got embarrassed on opening night, but the Bucs will most likely be without Cadillac Williams. In my mind this game feels like it may be to good to be true, so I probably will be steering clear of this match-up. Another intriguing game will be between the Dolphins (+3.5) and Cowboys. After a disappointing overtime loss, the Dolphins will need an even stronger effort to stay competitive with TO and company. I believe if the Dolphins struggle stopping the run (they gave up 191 yards rushing last week), they will easily fall to 0-2.

Predictions:

Chargers +3.5 - I believe that San Diego will come up big in this rematch of last year's AFC Divisional Playoff. I think the Patriots may come back to earth against a legitimate defense.

NYG-GB Under 37.5- Even though this is a very low number, Green Bay scored 10 of their 16 points on pathetic Eagle turnovers. If Eli is out New York will really struggle against a strong Green Bay defense.

Cincy -6.5 Given the horrid outing the Browns showed in week one, I see no evidence that Cleveland will be able to keep this game even competitive. If the Steeler's passing game was too strong, Cincinnati will have no problem bombing it all over the mistake by the lake.

Discrediting pundits' NFL predictions

As a professional ticket broker, it is very hard to take an objective view of the NFL season. In an ideal world, the Cowboys, Vikings, Saints and Cardinals would be NFC division champions and host at least one home game. In the AFC, the Dolphins, Bengals, Jaguars and Chargers would be ideal champions for brokers.

Since the league expanded to the current format, the league has averaged less than 4 repeat division champions. Ironically, every pundit (including on this blog) makes "bold" predicitions that include most of the previous years divison winners repeating. ESPN "experts" picked 83% of last years division winners, choosing to remain ignorant to the past.

History has told us that this simply won't happen. Therefore, the most effective way at predicting the outcome of the NFL in the preseason is identifying the teams that will come out of nowhere and topple the quality playoff teams from the year before. Last year it was the Ravens, Chargers, Saints and Eagles. I personally only saw the Chargers as a lock to win their division last year out of that group.

Here are my 4 teams that will make the leap and host a playoff game this year:

Dallas Cowboys. This one is the smallest leap of faith. With a full year of Tony Romo and a relatively quiet offseason for TO, I see them winning an otherwise weak division. We will see if Romo's quick rise from unknown rookie to cover boy on teeny-bopper magazines everywhere has any effect on his play. (Likewise for thrice champion Brady)

San Francisco 49ers. They have done a great job building this team over the last few years. This is the make or break year for Alex Smith and with a quality RB in Gore this team is poised to overtake Seattle. Smith sure has blossomed since throwing 11 INTs and only 1 TD two years ago, and I expect him to make another leap.

Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are finally fully healthy and are getting close to being able to field a full team of convicts. After beating the prision guards in the preseason, they look to beat up on the Ravens and Steelers, who will both take a major step back this year. I wonder if Chris Rock is available as an assistant for Marvin Lewis...

Green Bay Packers. As a Lions fan, this is the hardest one to pick. But the Packers have the young talent around Favre to win the division at 8-8 considering their competition is: the Bears, who are a miserable offensive team that traded their leading rusher, the Vikings who have Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback, and the Lions...who are, the Lions. Additionally, For this to happen, Favre has to go through some kind of adversity. Maybe another hurricane, ATV accident or death in the family can improve their chances.

The rest of the divisions will be filled with division winners Indianapolis, New England, San Diego and New Orleans.

Regardless, is there a greater time of year to be a sports hustler? The NFL is upon us, buying season for the NBA is ramping up and the MLB playoffs are quickly approaching.

NFL Season Starts With Plenty of Appetizing Gambling

Finally, we have returned from the gambling hibernation known as June and July. If it weren’t for Tradesports, I probably would have had full out withdrawal symptoms. My co-workers have laughed at my stories of betting on golf, baseball, and (gasp) women’s tennis.

As the NFL begins tonight, it seems finally appropriate to discuss predictions for the upcoming season. Many have billed New England as the overwhelming favorite to win this year. With their stellar off-season, it seems almost a certainty that Billy boy will have no problem guiding his squad to Glendale comes February. If you were considering taking another team to be the AFC representative, I would highly discourage it. Betting against Belichick could be the worst form of gambling available.

The place to find value this year would be in regular season win totals. For example on betus.com, the Titans line is at 7. This is a high line for a team that finished 8-8 with a flurry of dramatic wins. Vince Young will have to conduct his high wire act without last years leading rusher and receiver. Pac Man will obviously be gone on the defensive side as well. I believe this year will be a step back for the Titans.

Another team most likely to take a step back is the Chiefs. After an anemic performance against the Colts in the playoffs, they decided to go in a new direction at quarterback. This leaves an older team to suffer with growing pains at the QB position. Unless Croyle proves opposing defenses he can move the ball with his arm, they may be in for a long season. At a 7.5 win line; I can easily see the Chiefs slipping to 7-9 or 6-10.

A team that really seems to be under the radar is the St Louis Rams. “The Greatest Show on Turf” may not be in existence any more, but a Bulger-Jackson-Holt combination may be enough to get this team to the playoffs. The NFC west has been billed as a juggernaut, but I still doubt the Cardinals have drastically improved yet. As for the 49’ers, my rule is any team with Walt Harris should just be contracted. There are no excuses for the Rams to not light it up with a healthy Orlando Pace, under rated Drew Bennett, and new TE Randy McMichael. If the defense can improve even slightly, I see the Rams winning easily 8-9 games in the weak NFC.

As for tonight, this game between the Saints and Colts has been hyped as a track meet. With a total in near 53-54, this will be one of the highest point totals for the entire season. Last year, both over totals listed in the 50’s went under the posted total. Personally, I look for nothing different to get this year started. For both teams to be successful their respective run defenses will need to be tested. Last year most teams adapted a bunker mentality against the Colts, making it difficult for Peyton to connect on the deep routes. I look for much of the same this year.

My Predictions:

NFC West- Seahawks East- Eagles North-Bears South-Saints

AFC West- Chargers East- Patriots North-Bengals South-Colts

AFC Champ- Patriots

NFC Champ- Seahawks

Lupica Does Not Know Evil

At one point in his career, Mike Lupica was regarded as one of the country's best sports writers. In the present he's well-known for his appearances on the The Sports Reporters. Despite having having a panel of 4 people, Lupica speaks for 90% of the show and interrupts everyone with his PC jargon and valiant non sequiturs. I used to love that show, but now it is terrible compared to PTI and even Around the Horn. If Lupica was on Around the Horn, he would be muted more than Helen Keller. Anyways, earlier in the week Lupica wrote a piece declaring gambling as the "root of all evil". Below is a breakdown of the numerous misrepresentations littered throughout his article along with our commentary.

"For the longest time, the biggest professional sports have wrung their hands in public about illegal gambling, and how it can corrupt everything and everybody, and continued to treat legal gambling with a wink and a nod. "

If the major professional sports treated legal gambling with more respect, as FIFA is attempting to do and the NFL already does, they would be more prepared for the ill-effects of illegal gambling and corruption of referees, players, coaches, etc. The NBA is not doing enough winking and nodding at Las Vegas.

"Or perhaps you think the National Football League puts out those injury reports every week because they think we're worried if the sick players are getting better."

As the Sports Lawyer notes, if the NBA had put out similar injury reports as the NFL does, inside information would be drastically reduced and Donaghy would not have been near as helpful as an informant.

"Even the people running the NFL know that it's not just the most popular sport on television because of those real hard hits. Part of the huge appeal of pro football is because it generates the most betting, insane amounts of money changing hands all the way to Super Sunday. Basketball? There's games every night. Like it or not, that means the red-light district is always right across the street.

Why is this a problem? People are going to gamble no matter what counter-productive laws the empty suits in Washington DC pass. Don't believe me? Prohibition and the War on Drugs worked out real well didn't they? It's much better to regulate and publicly disclose as much information as possible. If a blanket law was passed outlawing all gambling people would resort to shady offshore shops and even shadier local bookies. Instead, myriad legitimate, reputable gambling options exist.

"Somebody walked across that street and put the arm on Donaghy, the one ref we know about so far with a gambling problem, gave him a moonlighting job as a way to get out from under his debts. So are you shocked about Donaghy, or more shocked that it took this long for some enterprising bad guys to figure out a way to finance bad behavior like this?"

I don't think any rational person is shocked. As mentioned previously, increasing referee salary and disclosing "insider information" would drastically reduce this risk. Additionally, I wouldn't say that $5,000 a pick is going to get him out of debt very quickly. Donaghy has either taken the short bus his whole life or had an alternative motive for providing picks than just money.

"Gambling is supposed to be bad, bad, bad, around pro basketball and everything else. But it is perfectly all right for the owners of the Sacramento Kings, the Maloof brothers, who own one of the biggest and gaudiest casinos in Las Vegas. This past year, the NBA decided to take All-Star weekend to Vegas, and there is always talk that the sports leagues are trying to figure out some way to put a franchise there.

Gambling is not "bad, bad, bad". It provides entertainment and creates jobs. Although one could argue it doesn't exactly create wealth, is that really any different than the entertainment industry? Putting a franchise in Vegas is a brilliant idea unless you think we should move another professional franchise to Hartford.

"There is a vulgar amount of money in sports and an army of young guys spending it, in all sorts of ways, hanging around with all sorts of people, in all sorts of places. On both sides of the street. If commissioners are going to police all that, if they want to be the traffic cops, they're going to have to put on more people."

Guess who is responsible for the "vulgar amount of money" in sports. The fans. The networks. The broadcasters. You. Me. Don't patronize the young guys earning all the money; they're doing what any rational person with exceptional athletic talent would do. Also, the only PLAYERS that have ever been enticed into throwing games are college players, who, shockingly are UNPAID. Vulgar amounts of money decrease the possibility of Donaghy-like events; it does not increase them.
Unfortunately the NBA and David Stern decided to take the ball-less approach - the one that looks great on paper and appeases fans and front office suits in the short-term, but doesn't do anything to solve the long-term problem of transparency. The other day, the NBA hired Lawrence B. Pedowitz to analyze the NBA's anti-gambling polices and monitoring processes for the NBA's officials. So far, I have received 8 press releases from different teams as the NBA has tried to force this down the throat of their teams and subsequently their fans. Stayed tune for a crack down on NCAA Tourney pool participants and casual, insignificant gamblers.

Written by Lewis and Kevin.

The Easy Way Out

We unfortunately live in a world where people are always looking for the easy way out. More and more stories come out on a daily basis about wannabe scam artists. Whether it be on Wall Street with insider trading (think Dow Jones), on NBC's To Catch a Criminal, or in the world of sports.

Not only have sports fans had to endure stories about steroids, corked bats, dog fighting, and the Cincinnati Bengals. We have had to deal with more and more cases of match fixing. Tennis, college football, and pro basketball have been surrounded by betting scandals. What makes it even more frustrating is the fact that no sports governing body has acknowledged that sports gambling is a profitable business venture. We are coming to a point in the current sports landscape that requires more attention to gambling, and the counterparts involved.

With this in mind, it is refreshing to see that FIFA will be taking note of betting patterns during its upcoming world cup qualifying. Soccer has not been exempt from betting scandal in the past few years. Italy was rocked with news last year of match fixing in its own Serie A. According to the Associated Press, the soccer commission will be setting up a third party consultant, Early Warning System, to investigate suspicious betting patterns.

Although the timing suggests they have learned from the NBA's misfortunes, it is a sign that at least someone has caught on. It is nice to have Vegas as a reliable partner, but governing parties may want to actively protect the sanctity of its sport on their own.

Donaghy is Dumber than We Thought

When news of the Donaghy betting scandal first broke, I wasn't particularly surprised. It was relatively easy to see how the temptation of riches could push someone in the wrong direction. It's happened countless time before. Since Donaghy had a job paying over five times the median American household income, I figured he was being paid hundreds of thousands of dollars per year for his services. I was wrong. Yesterday the Smoking Gun reported Donaghy was only paid $5,000 per winning pick (Donaghy wasn't penalized or compensated for losing picks) by professional gambler James Battista, who according to ESPN's Lester Munson was known as a big betting mover. Unless Donaghy was submitting 50-100 winning picks per season, this appears to be a ridiculously small sum considering the amount of money wagered on his picks, and Donaghy's salary and job stability with the NBA.

As we mentioned in a previous post, most of the NBA's gambling problem would partially defuse if the NBA paid their referees more money. Would $5,000 per winning pick really be worth losing a stable job paying our recommended high six figure salary? This being in addition to all the perks the referees receive from the league. Sure, you'd still have action-loving addicts like Charles Barkley to worry about, but the move would significantly reduce the risk of people chancing their career and the league's image to make some extra money on the side.

Going forward, it will be interesting to see the types of picks Donaghy submitted (e.g. spread, over/under, straight up) , what percent of his picks turned out to be winners and how much money he netted in total from the scheme. In the present, that isn't likely since the case isn't going to trial. However, more information could be revealed if the investigation snowballs.

Update: SH favorite, the Sports Law Professor has a insightful take on the matter here. I especially like the idea of making available "insider information", specifically player injuries and the names of referees like the NFL does. Lupica has a terrible, logical fallacy-filled piece here, which we'll discuss later in the week.

The Case Against Cubs Mythology

On a recent MLB on Fox broadcast, Tim McCarver stated, rather matter-of-factly, that if the then-hot Chicago Cubs were to go on to take over the NL Central from Milwaukee, win the NL pennant, and claim their first World Series in 99 years, that it would go down as “one of the top three great sports moments of all time.” While many baseball viewers, both casual and diehard, dislike McCarver for his tendency to overanalyze the minute aspects of the game (often incorrectly), broadcasters who make sweeping generalizations have always bothered me the most. As compared to what? What are his criteria? He didn’t elaborate, as the subject changed soon after (maybe Joe Buck felt sympathy for the clearly waning McCarver); however, the most infuriating part of this statement was that many baseball fans, even those who see it as a profoundly stupid thing to say, can at least see where McCarver is coming from…after all, it’s the Cubs; they never win! What McCarver said was just another instance of a pro sports team getting a free pass from the media based principally on reputation. The Cubs are always the loveable losers, just like the Steelers always have a great defense…reality be damned. The mythology of the Cubs affords the club the luxury of avoiding justly deserved criticism, and instead perpetuates the kind of thinking that McCarver articulated. To an objective observer, buying into the idea that it is a historically memorable sports moment if a high-payroll, big market team playing in a consistently bad division could win a championship borders on preposterous; instead, if the Cubs get back to winning, we’ll be subjected to hearing how a Cubs postseason will be the “feel good baseball story of the year”.
While several low-payroll teams have had successful seasons in the past couple years, the teams with the highest payrolls tend to appear in the postseason consistently (a notable exception being the Mets, who have appeared in the postseason just once in this century, though unlike the Cubs, they face scathing criticism from local and national media.) In recent years, the Cubs have consistently outspent most teams; since 2004 they have been amongst the top ten highest spending teams in baseball each season; only once since 2001 have they not had the highest opening day payroll in the NL Central. While the Cubs may not be the Yankees of the Midwest, for fans who criticize George Steinbrenner for tainting the competitive nature of the game with money, they should realize the Cubs are not blameless.
The past (or, most recent) decade of Cubs ineptitude has not been a result of playing in a difficult division- the Reds haven’t finished with a winning record since 2000, while amazingly both the Pirates and Brewers have been below .500 since 1992. No other division in baseball is even close to being so disparate.
The point I am making is not that the Cubs are bad, or “unlucky” – this is already acknowledged, and implicitly part of what McCarver said. What McCarver and others aren’t recognizing is that the Cubs are supposed to win, and some season, they will. The fact that they haven’t won the World Series in nearly a century is immaterial; few current Cubs were on the last playoff team in 2003, and not one player has been a Cub for more than ten years. Just like how dice have no memory, what happened to a Cubs team in 2003, 1984, 1969, or 1908 is irrelevant.
What keeps it going then? The folklore of the Cubs is deeply ingrained into pop culture, even non baseball fans are familiar with the memes. The rabid Cubs fan, a relatable yuppie type who still knows how to be one of the guys, has become a stale Hollywood archetype. Every girl who graduates college and moves to Chicago becomes a dilettante Cubs fan so she can feign interest to impress the guys at the awesome Lincoln Park and Loop bars her and her friends frequent. While a Cubs hat or jersey should be enough already, some people wear attire that unambiguously tells you that you do not want to talk baseball or anything else with this person. Sure, I’m painting with a broad brush, and some Cubs fans genuinely have a passion for their club, and 99 years is a long time, but the White Sox went 88 years between championships. The 2005 World Series won by the team across the city was a long time coming, but outside of the South Side, their victory was entirely ordinary- they were the best team in the division on paper, they had a relatively high payroll, and they played well all season, and especially so when it mattered. Memorable yes, but certainly not cracking anyone’s Top Three.

The Celtics Revisited

Earlier we reported that since the KG trade, Celtics tickets have been a hot commodity. Over the weekend, Celtics team president Rich Gotham confirmed that the Celtics season ticket base has grown by an astounding 50% since the KG trade. With the Reggie Miller return rumors running rampant, this number could be pushed even higher if Miller ends up signing with the Celtics.

As John Hollinger noted on his blog, which covered some of the potential NBA comeback players (Penny Hardaway, Charles Oakley, and Allan Houston in addition to Miller), most of them should stay retired. Oakley is too old and was terrible in his final three seasons. Hardaway had a horrendous PER of 8.99 in 2004-2005; his last season of 30 or more games. Houston has an arthritic knee, which as Hollinger pointed out, doesn't exactly go away. However, Miller was the exception. Miller retired when he was still a starter and had an above average PER of 16.62. Additionally, the Pacer's were 9.6 points per game better with him on the court than off.

Although certainly not the same player from the late 90's or even of 2004-2005, Miller would still provide the Celtics with a much needed additional shooter, who would have myriad open looks with KG drawing the double team and Pierce usually drawing help defense on drives. Additionally, with Rajon Rondo able to guard the PG and SG positions, Miller could always guard the weaker of the two opponents given his age and shaky defense. Furthermore, Miller would provide the Celtics with a fourth player who has literally sold out an arena by himself (KG, Pierce and Allen being the others). Even if Miller only played 10-15 minutes a night, he'd still draw fans and help the team as he was easily one of the best shooters of his era (.395% career 3 point percentage), and shooting is one of the few skills that normally stays with a player as they age.

Dear Angels

Received this in the mail the other day from the Angels.

Dear Season Seat Holder:

We are happy to offer season seat holders the opportunity to purchase postseason tickets under the terms established by the Angels and Major League Baseball. Enclosed please find your 2007 Postseason Invoice and Postseason Terms & Conditions. Please make a note that your payment in full is due on or before August 31, 2007.

If you are currently carrying a credit balance on your account, then we have rolled over the appropriate amount necessary to cover any portion of your postseason payment. The credit is identified on your postseason invoice.

As a reminder, season seat holders may not sell and/or otherwise transfer event tickets without the express written consent of Angels Baseball, with the exception of sales and/or the transfer of tickets through the Angels Baseball ticketExchange system exclusively.

Dear Angels,

Maybe instead of trying to regulate free markets with your Hugo Chavez ideology, you should learn how to use a simple mail merge so you don't look like mongoloids sending out generic form letters to your fan base.

I'm sure you're well aware that secondary markets increase attendance, which results in higher revenue and profit in the form of merchandise sales, food sales, beer sales etc while providing liquidity. Angels Baseball ticketExchange is a pile of shit; I suggest you partner up with Stubhub like the rest of major league baseball.

Finally, maybe instead of worrying about what people do with goods they purchased and now own you should fix that little rat problem of yours - it's hurting my margins.

Very truly yours,

Your favorite scalper

Christmas in August

One of my few flaws is that I have a sick obsession with futures and prop betting. I could spend hours looking at the outrageous bets offered for the Super Bowl (length of the national anthem). So thanks to our degenerate friends across the pond (namely my employer) we have been supplied with Christmas during the summer. The amount of prop bets for Golf's four majors rival any other sporting event during the year. Personally, I am a little disappointed their is not an over/under line on how many golfers will pass out on the course this week.


If it weren't for prop bets, I would have absolutely no interest in this final major of a pretty forgettable golf year. If the fact that newbies have won every major weren't enough, I had Sergio Garcia to win the British Open only to seem him choke on yet another Sunday. Not to mention this tournament is being played in one of the most boring places on earth. I dare you to find a worse city in the egregious state of Oklahoma.

Let's get this out there to start with, Tiger will win this tournament. Having only a Who's Now title will not suffice for this incredibly competitive being. Not to mention, he has placed 2nd, 2nd, and 12th at the other majors this season. According to Bodog, Tiger is the favorite at 9/4.
Now that may seem like good value at +225, but you can find better if you hunt through the endless supply of prop bets.


At BetUS.com you can find my favorite value bet, handicap winners. In this prop you can pick a select few golfers to finish within a certain amount of strokes from the leader. Two of my favorite values are KJ Choi +8 strokes and Hunter Mahan + 9 stokes. At 9-1 and 11-1 respectively, I have no problem placing some cheddar on these two considering their recent success on the real PGA tour.

My favorite What The F@#$ bet is whether their will be a hole in one during the tournament. This is an obvious action junkie special right here. Who on earth would have any idea as to whether an ace will be hit this weekend? I say no.....



While sifting through the countless options to bet on, I thought I had found my lead pipe lock of the summer. When I stumbled upon Odds to miss the cut, I instantly searched for John Daly. The thought of John Daly trying to play golf in 100 degree heat made me see dollar signs. Unfortunately, like always, Vegas is one step ahead.

"No John Daly Odds Available"

Vegas Can Be Your Friend

The recent story of Betfair voiding over $7 million in bets on a recent tennis match proves again that odds makers have more then their own monetary interests in mind. This troubling tale, if proven to be true, shows how far degenerate gamblers are willing to go to guarantee a profit.

For those unaware of the story, fourth ranked Nikolay Davydenko is under a cloud of suspicion for retiring in an early round match of the Prokom Open. What makes the situation so odd is that betting against Davydenko increased rapidly after he swept through the first set with no signs of problems. Total betting on the match was over 10 times the standard amount on an average tennis match.

This recent case again proves that Vegas and other odds makers are also out to clean the sporting scene. Don't get me wrong, Vegas has its own monetary interests mainly at heart. But their constant analysis of the betting scene has helped crack multiple cases of betting manipulation in the past few years.

Most recently, Vegas book makers helped bust an operation that involved University of Toledo running back Scooter McDougle. As an avid sports fan, it makes me feel better to see these ponce schemes busted on a more frequent basis.

First of all, anyone that thinks they can get away with betting hundreds of thousands of dollars on tennis matches or MAC football games probably should be wiped off the face of the earth. Who in their right mind would be putting up big money on matches between Toledo and Northern Illinois, or even worse a second round match between two tennis players who aren't on Age of Love.


So next time you lose 50 bucks on a back door cover by the Miami Hurricanes, feel solace that Vegas is doing its best to protect you from an inside job. Unless you happen to be betting on an NBA game, then you are just screwed!!

Warriors and Barnes Agree to Deal

The Golden State Warriors and fan-favorite, swingman Matt Barnes have reached an agreement. The terms of the deal are unknown as any official announcement has yet to be be released. For Barnes, this marks the end to an extremely frustrating offseason. After becoming somewhat of a playoff hero for the Warriors in the 2006-2007 playoffs and believing he could easily receive a team's mid-level exception, Barnes was widely ignored during free agency. Teams viewed him as a product of Don Nelson's small ball, uptempo system and balked at his contract demands. Consequentially, Barnes went fired two agents in one summer before finally settling on Aaron Goodwin.

Warriors tickets remain hot as all Warriors 100 level season tickets are sold out. Additionally, despite mediocre performance over the past decade (the Warriors only made the 2006-2007 playoffs due to late-season surge), the Warriors still managed to be at 94% capacity in 2006-2007 and 95% capacity in 2005-2006 . Although the resigning of Barnes and additions of Austin Croshere, Macro Belinelli and Brandan Wright certainly improves the Warriors chances for the 2008 playoffs, it might not be enough to offset the loss of Jason Richardson and potentially Mickael Pietrus in the ultra-competitive Western Conference.

Update: The deal ended up only being one year for $3.5 million instead of the previously reported multi-year deal.

Celtics making all the right (follow-up) moves

Not surprisingly, Celtics tickets are on fire. Their intro screen proudly declares "We've got our ticket, have you got yours?" Their website is already filled with pictures of Kevin Garnett, Allen and the incumbent Pierce. The marketing is in place, the phones won't stop ringing and the web is still buzzing about the Celtics. Some Timberwolves fans are pissed, but most understand the situation. What's been interesting is how happy non-Timberwolves fans are for KG. By every account I've read, KG really is the person portrayed on TV - the guy who goes hard every night no matter what the circumstances. This wouldn't be much of a revelation ,if the NBA wasn't filled with Vince Carters.

At first, I was worried when rumors started appearing that the Celtics would surround their super trio with minimum salary players. Screw the salary cap; the team's window is 3 or 4 years, the luxury tax is a non-factor at this point. The Celitcs are all in; it's not time to be shit kicking over a few million. The Celtics have permission to get in to Isiah territory.

The Celtics quelled my initial fears, signing incredibly underrated guard Eddie House to a one year contract. He can play either guard spot, hit the 3, and doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective. He's the antithesis of Rajon Rondo, who is a much better ball handler and defender.

Also, the Celtics Blog is reporting there's a rumor going around that Ryan Gomes might be released and sign back with the Celtics. I've never seen so many fans excited about a potential role player addition, but the Celtics need all the bench players they can get. If this happens...why was Gomez included in the trade to begin with? His 700kish salary easily could have been omitted.

In other news...

Unfortunately, futures for the NBA Finals winner haven't been released from Trade Sports yet (I was anxious to see the Celtics' odds), but I'll post them as soon as they are. It will be interesting to see the futures for the Eastern Conference Finals winner too - other than Chicago and maybe Detroit - is there any other team that isn't an injury or two away from instantly becoming a lottery contender?

Update: All $15 and $18 Celtics season tickets are sold out.

Update 2: All $15, $18 and $25 tickets are sold out. Guess who got some? Also, the NBA quickly redid its schedule after the KG trade to allow for 19 TV appearances by the Celtics.

Why the Mavs have Hot Cheerleaders

I would never say the Mavs have the best cheerleaders (ok, dancers, whatever) in pro sports; however, as evidenced by the picture and video below they can certainly compete with almost any team. So where do the Mavs find their talent? As evidenced by an email I received from them the other day...off the street.

Subject: Dancer Auditions

Attention all ladies! Want to be part of the hottest dance team in the NBA? If you are a high school graduate, at least 18 years old, energetic and love to perform in front of large crowds - the Mavs want YOU to tryout to be a part of the Dallas Mavericks Dancers.

Auditions will be held on Sat., Aug. 11 at the Hilton Anatole Hotel.

Also, don't forget to take advantage of the prep classes being offered at the Dallas Power House of Dance.

I guess, when you're openly inviting everyone in the 8th largest city in the United States, you're bound to end up with hot cheerleaders. We should tell the Orlando Magic should follow suit.

Maybe that's why that despite being ousted embarrassingly early in the 2007 playoffs by the run-and-gun Warriors, the Mavericks had one of the highest season ticket renewal rates ever - and I remain stuck on the waitlist. Say what you want about Mark Cuban, but everything he touches turns to gold (except the Benefactor). Perhaps more fans should look to him as a role model instead of the athletes.

How to Fix the NBA's Gambling Problem

A lot has been made of the Donaghy point-shaving scandal. Some have eagerly offered suggestions to Stern on how to fix it, others don't know what to think and some have taken a much more collected approach while Stern already overreacted. Despite all the news coverage, what most of the public doesn't understand is that if Donagal is indeed guilty, it's highly probable that his actions primarily affected the Over/Under of basketball games, which are substantially easier to control than win-loss outcomes.

Although to some the situation certainly appears dire, it's not near as hard to fix as some people are making it out to be. What the ordeal hinges on is David Stern and his merry band of TPS Report-bearing yes-man, and their willingness to listen to others' ideas while being sure to not overreact. As the Sports Law Professor eloquently points out: this game fixing scandal really isn't that big of a deal, especially considered the amount of times similar situations have happened in NCAA basketball.

With all that said, here are my relatively easy to execute suggestions on how to fix the NBA's gambling problem:

1) Copy the NFL. As Brandon Lang mentions in his interview with Wayne Drehs "In the NFL, there's a task force that on Monday reviews every critical call that came anywhere near the point spread. I don't believe that's ever been done in the NBA." Sure there would be a lot more games to review, but the NBA certainly has the resources to make this happen - why aren't they doing this?

2) Pay the Refs more. As I discussed in a prior post, if you pay the referees more money, they have significantly less incentive to cheat. There's a reason players are rarely involved in these type of scandals: it isn't worth it. Pay the refs $500,000 to $1.5 million. Not only will this help recruit better talent (more people will want to become referees because it pays so well), the incentive to cheat will be greatly diminished. I promise the league can afford it.

3) Finally, hold David Stern to his words and make the NBA truly transparent. In a recent article, Chris Sheridan mentioned posting all NBA referee statistics online. This is a brilliant idea and one I wanted to elaborate on. Not only would this action add transparency, but it would also outsource a significant amount of the work. Stats geeks like John Hollinger, David Berri, Mark Cuban et al. along with numerous bloggers would be all over this data. There'd constantly be outside articles and analysis going on throughout the season in addition to the NBA's own inhouse team.

Vick Isn't Just Hurting Doggies

Dogs aren't the only thing Michael "Ookie" Vick has been hurting. Speculators who invested in Falcons Super Bowl futures on Trade Sports have been getting absolutely hammered over the course of the past few month. Prices have fallen from a high of 2.5 in March 2007 (and 2.4 in May) to a current price of 0.8 as of July 25, 2007.




Additionally, prices for Falcons tickets on Stubhub have been leveling off as well. Michael Vick might not win football games, complete passes or wear protection, but he does draw a large crowd and have fun nick names. Unfortunately for Michael Vick, even at this stage in his career he remains exactly what he was when he entered the league - a below average quarterback and an above average running back who also happens to only have one legitimately good season under his belt (2004). Ironically, had the Falcons, kept Matt Schaub, the Falcons might have been a great value play for this upcoming season.

I was actually extremely close to purchasing Falcons season tickets (to scalp of course) due to the Falcons great draft, solid 2006 attendance and over-hyped, attendance-drawing quarterback, Michael Vick. Fortunately, I was wait-listed.

Stein Misses the Point

Earlier today, Marc Stein of ESPN wrote this in his Donaghy Questions & Answers article:

"If salaries were raised, would that reduce the possibility of referees being lured into the sort of activities Donaghy is accused of?

Referees make only a fraction of what NBA players earn, true, in a league in which the average player salary tops $5 million.

Yet it's a significant stretch to suggest they're all desperate for dollars -- even if you want to overstate things and make it sound as though fighting off such temptations is a common problem.

Entry-level referees are paid in the $85,000 area, according to league sources, but the overwhelming majority are six-figure earners. At the high end of the scale, salaries surpass $300,000.

It's believed that a referee with Donaghy's experience makes more than $200,000 annually, with extra cash coming in the playoffs.

The median wage and salary income in this country in 2005, according to U.S. Census data, was $34,926 for men and $23,546 for women."

I usually like Stein, but he completely misses the mark here. With regards to NBA basketball and gambling it doesn't matter how much the average person in the U.S. earns - these players, coaches and even referees are in a different world. What matters is that referees can easily earn more than 1x-5x their salary in a week long stretch of games without drawing any bookie-based red flags ( i.e. in Vegas people wouldn't look twice at mid five to low six figure bets).

In contrast, an NBA player, with an average single year salary of over $5.0 million would rarely risk millions upon millions of dollars in current and future salary along with endorsement opportunities and royalties payments for relative chump change point shaving. Additionally, if they wanted to reap rewards greater than their salary their bets would almost certainly draw scrutiny.

Money provides with people with incentive even if they aren't "desperate for dollars". Additionally, this situation exemplifies why having a team in Vegas shouldn't be a concern - at least as far as gambling goes. The internet is ubiquitous; people can place a bet anywhere as it doesn't matter where the team is playing. Generally speaking, players make too much money to ever risk it all wagering on games or point shaving. And the players who don't usually aren't significant enough factors alter the game outcome.